Vulnerability Assessments

 

Our climate is responsible for many types of extreme events, and communities throughout the Great Lakes are working to become more resilient to the impacts of a variable climate. Communities should be aware of climate trends and feel empowered to plan for greater resiliency to climate impacts.

 

Trends / Impacts

Note: Global trends are more certain than regional trends. Natural variability plays a larger role at the regional scale.

Key Trends

  • Rising Average Temperatures
  • Observed Increase in Frost-Free Season Length
  • Observed Extreme Precipitation
    The amount falling in the heaviest 1% of precipitation events increased by 37% in the Midwest and by 71% in the Northeast from 1958 to 2012.
  • Great Lakes Ice Coverage

Implications for Communities

Damages to Infrastructure

Health Impacts

  • Extreme Heat Events
  • Flooding
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Air Quality Issues

Food and Agriculture

  • Negative Impacts on Tree Species
  • Fire Hazards and Wildfire

Environmental Impacts

Resources

Michigan Resources

Michigan Climate Coalition 
Michigan Hazard Mitigation Plan
Forestry 
Michigan Health Adaptation Plan
Agriculture 
Energy

Midwest Resources

GLISA – Headquarters for all climate data in the Midwest region 

International Resources

International Panel on Climate Change
Union of Concerned Scientists

National Resources

NOAA
National Climate Assessment
American Association of the Advancement of Science 
Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE) - features a wide variety of case studies

Politics / Education

The politicization of climate variability has made it difficult for communities to have productive conversations on these issues. However, communities can talk about resiliency outside the framework of climate variability and its politics by focusing on other benefits of resiliency planning.

Benefits of Resiliency Planning

  • Greater ability for public infrastructure systems to handle emergencies
  • Improved water quality
  • Better recreational opportunities

Local Community Focus

When discussing climate variability, it is most effective to address what is happening or could happen at the local community level. Global trends may be controversial and abstract, but communities can focus on areas of agreement:

                  “Flooding is bad, and we should mitigate against flood damage in our community.”

Actions of No Regret

Actions of no regret are projects and investments where the benefits are clear, regardless of climate variability impacts. Examples include:

  • Green Stormwater Infrastructure
    • Rain gardens / green roofs / etc.
      • Reduces water pollution
      • Beautifies the environment

By focusing on broadly supported projects, communities can bypass heated climate debates and enact practical improvements.

Vulnerability Assessments

“A vulnerability assessment is a first step in climate adaptation, just as a risk assessment is an early step in risk management.”
— Michigan DNR

Purpose

Vulnerability assessments, used across Michigan by the Land Information Access Association (LIAA), aim to:

  • Identify vulnerabilities within a community
  • Develop tools to foster resiliency in policy decisions

Key Concepts

  1. Exposure to Risk:
    Where is the environmental risk the greatest?

  2. Sensitivity to Risk:
    Who in the community is most likely to experience adverse effects from that risk?

Vulnerability Analysis Steps

  1. Identify Sensitive Populations
  2. Identify Environmental Risk
  3. Composite Vulnerability

Exposure

  • Flood-Prone Areas:
    • FEMA 100- and 500-year flood zones
    • FEMA flood data
  • High Exposure Areas:
    • Low-lying land
    • Land near bodies of water
    • Areas with large paved surfaces
    • Neighborhoods with few trees
    • Older housing stock

Sensitivity

  • Vulnerable Populations:
    • Elderly
    • Young children
    • People with medical conditions
    • Those living in poverty (especially homeless)
    • People who work outdoors
    • Athletes
    • Individuals who live alone

Composite Vulnerability

Combines exposure and sensitivity to create a single vulnerability metric, often visualized through mapping.

Formula:
Vulnerability = Exposure + Sensitivity

Example Metrics

  • Exposure:
    • FEMA flood zones
  • Sensitivity:
    • Year home was built
    • Percent of households living below the poverty threshold
  • Composite Vulnerability:
    • Household sensitivity overlaid on flood-prone areas
For a more detailed guide on vulnerability assessments, visit this Resilient Great Lakes Coast page created by Professor Richard Norton (University of Michigan).

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